Category: Research Papers


The COVID-19 pandemic is the profoundest health crisis of the 21rst century. The SARS-CoV-2 virus arrived in Brazil around March, 2020 and its social and economical backlashes are catastrophic. In this paper, it is investigated how Model Predictive Control (MPC) could be used to plan appropriate social distancing policies to mitigate the pandemic effects in Bahia and Santa Catarina, two states of different regions, culture, and population demography in Brazil. In addition, the parameters of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) models for these two states are identified using an optimization procedure. The control input to the process is a social isolation guideline passed to the population. Two MPC strategies are designed: a) a centralized MPC, which coordinates a single control policy for both states; and b) a decentralized strategy, for which one optimization is solved for each state. Simulation results are shown to illustrate and compare both control strategies. The framework serves as guidelines to deals with such pandemic phenomena.

Contact: Marcelo Menezes Morato

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Tags: control and modeling

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, COVID-19, Social isolation, SIRD Model, System Identification.

Files: 2006.14108.pdf